People's Liberation Army Navy Vessels Passed Through Basilan Strait

This is the first time that the People's Liberation Army Navy of China to traverse this body of water on its way home back to its country after a goodwill visit.

A Type 071 Amphibious Transport Dock of PLAN traversing Basilan Strait
From a Zamboangueño FB page comments

Three vessels from the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China passed through the Basilan Strait, a strategic maritime route near Zamboanga City's Santa Cruz Island. The passage took place in the afternoon, drawing attention from both local authorities and international observers.

Among the vessels was the Type 071 amphibious transport ship Jinggang Shan (999), a significant asset of the PLAN known for its capability to deploy large numbers of troops, vehicles, and equipment. Accompanying the Jinggang Shan were the Duludao-class dispatch ship Dong Jiao 93 and the Dadu-class training ship Qi Jiguang (83).

The flotilla was en route to Dalian, China, returning from a goodwill visit to Timor-Leste. The visit was part of China's broader diplomatic and military outreach in the region, aimed at fostering better bilateral relationships and showcasing its naval capabilities.

In response to the passage, the Philippine Navy dispatched the BRP Domingo Deluana, an Acero-class fast attack interdiction craft (FAIC-M), to monitor the movements of the PLAN vessels. Despite the Basilan Strait being recognized as an area for international passage, the deployment of the BRP Domingo Deluana underscores the Philippines' vigilance and commitment to maritime security.

The incident highlights the dynamic and often sensitive nature of naval operations in the region. As the People's Liberation Army Navy continues to expand its reach and influence, the presence of its vessels in key maritime routes like the Basilan Strait remains a point of strategic interest for the Philippines and its regional allies.

The Philippine Navy's monitoring activities aim to ensure that such passages adhere to international maritime laws and do not infringe upon the country's territorial waters. The incident also reflects the broader geopolitical context, where naval movements are closely watched as indicators of broader strategic intentions.

As these Chinese vessels continue their journey home, the event serves as a reminder of the ongoing importance of maritime awareness and the need for vigilant and cooperative monitoring of international waters.

References:

1. Rappler

2. Philippine News Agency

(c) 2024, Philippine Military Analysis and Updates.

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Tensions Escalate in the West Philippine Sea as China Coast Guard Water Cannons Philippine Supply Vessel Anew

The China Coast Guard has once again water cannoned one of the Philippine vessels that provide fresh supplies on troops onboard BRP Sierra Madre.

A China Coast Guard vessel seen aiming its water cannons on the M/L Kalayaan, a replenishment vessel.
Video screengrab from the Philippine Coast Guard.

In a disturbing incident that unfolded on November 10, 2023, tensions in the hotly contested waters of the West Philippine Sea flared once again as the China Coast Guard employed water cannons against a Philippine supply vessel on a replenishment mission near Ayungin Shoal. This latest confrontation comes on the heels of a partially completed resupply mission on October 22, marred by collisions in the open sea.

The targeted Philippine supply vessel, tasked with providing crucial replenishment to troops stationed onboard the BRP Sierra Madre, was met with aggressive resistance by the China Coast Guard in the Ayungin Shoal. The shoal, a strategically important feature in the South China Sea, has been a focal point in the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines.

The Philippines had deployed a convoy consisting of the supply vessel and three escorting Philippine Coast Guard vessels – the BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702), BRP Sindangan (MRRV-4407), and BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409). The convoy's mission was to deliver fresh supplies to the troops stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a military outpost that has been a symbol of Philippine presence in the region.

This latest incident underscores the escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea, where competing territorial claims and disputes over maritime boundaries have led to a series of confrontations between regional nations. The Ayungin Shoal, also known as Second Thomas Shoal, has been a consistent flashpoint in this ongoing geopolitical saga.

The water cannon attack by the China Coast Guard raises concerns about the safety and freedom of navigation in the area, as well as the potential for further military escalation. The use of force against a supply vessel on a humanitarian mission adds a dangerous dimension to the already complex situation in the region.

The Philippine supply vessel, a vital lifeline for the troops stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre, was reportedly undeterred by the Chinese aggression. The crew displayed remarkable resilience as they continued their mission to deliver essential supplies despite the hostile encounter. The determination of the Philippine crew reflects the importance placed on maintaining a strategic presence in the West Philippine Sea.

The Philippine Coast Guard vessels accompanying the supply convoy played a critical role in ensuring the safety and security of the mission. The BRP Melchora Aquino, BRP Sindangan, and BRP Cabra demonstrated professionalism and restraint, navigating through challenging circumstances to safeguard the supply vessel and its mission.

This recent clash comes just weeks after the October 22 resupply mission, which was fraught with challenges. During that operation, two collision incidents occurred in the open sea, resulting in the partial completion of the mission. The collisions raised concerns about the potential for accidents in the heavily trafficked waters and highlighted the need for increased maritime cooperation and communication to avoid such incidents in the future.

The international community has been closely monitoring developments in the South China Sea, urging restraint and peaceful resolution of disputes. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a framework for resolving maritime disputes, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and diplomacy over aggressive actions.

The Philippines has filed diplomatic protests against China, condemning the use of water cannons in the Ayungin Shoal incident. The Philippines asserts that such actions violate international law and endanger the lives of those involved in the humanitarian mission.

China, on the other hand, has defended its actions, claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea and accusing the Philippines of provocative actions in contested waters. The Chinese government maintains that its Coast Guard acted within its rights to protect its territorial integrity.

As tensions persist in the West Philippine Sea, there is a growing urgency for regional stakeholders to engage in constructive dialogue and find diplomatic solutions to avoid further escalation. The international community is watching closely, and the outcome of these disputes will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for regional stability and the future of maritime security in the South China Sea.

References:

1. Bloomberg

2. Rappler

3. CNN

(c) 2023, Philippine Military Analysis and Updates.

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This is just a short advisory

Effective by September 2023, the Philippine Military Analysis and Updates (PMAU) main website will start providing defense-related news and updated information about the Philippine national security and military-related modernization updates.

The updates may provide randomly as the website recently received optimization to ensure that information will get provided across, with additional context that gives further substance and other details about a specific topic.

This is for the information of our fellow readers of this website after months of inactivity. Thank you.

 - PMAU Admins

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Philippine, United States Forces To Hold Largest Annual Balikatan Exercises This Month

In the light of increased tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, the Philippines and the United States are about to undertake its largest iteration of its longest-running bilateral exercises this year, as this now sets to foster strong defense relations far beyond the alliance set by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.

A C-130J Super Hercules of the United States Marine Corps unloading
materiel in Subic Bay International Airport. 
(c) Defense Visual Information Distribution Service.

The Philippines and the United States are set to hold the Balikatan Exercises 2023, their largest bilateral exercise of the year. The exercises will begin on April 11, 2023, in selective areas of the country, particularly in the Northern Luzon area.

This year's event is expected to be more comprehensive than previous iterations of the Balikatan Exercises, with the Royal Australian Armed Forces joining in. The exercises will run for 18 days, concluding on April 28, 2023, and at least 17,600 military personnel are expected to participate. Of this number, 12,000 are American troops.

The Balikatan Exercises are an annual training event that aims to improve the interoperability of the Philippines and the United States in various areas, such as counter-terrorism, disaster response, and maritime security. It has been conducted since 1991, and this year's event is set to demonstrate the strong partnership between the Philippines, the United States, and Australia.

One of the highlights of this year's exercises is the live-fire phase, which is a first for the conduct of Balikatan. The live-fire exercise will include the sinking of a fishing vessel, which will serve as the target. The sinking of the vessel is expected to showcase the military's capability to protect the country's maritime interests.

The exercises will also include humanitarian and civic assistance projects, such as medical and dental missions, engineering projects, and school refurbishments. These projects aim to improve the lives of the people in the communities where the exercises will be conducted.

The number of participants in this year's Balikatan Exercises is significantly higher than the previous iteration, which had only 8,900 soldiers in attendance. The large number of participants indicates the strong commitment of the Philippines, the United States, and Australia to promoting stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

In summary, the Balikatan Exercises 2023 will showcase the strong partnership between the Philippines, the United States, and Australia. The live-fire exercise and the humanitarian and civic assistance projects demonstrate the military's capability to protect the country's interests while improving the lives of the people in the communities where the exercises will be conducted. The event serves as a symbol of cooperation and mutual defense, promoting stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

(c) 2023 PMAU.

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Finland Officially Becomes a Member of NATO

Finland is now officially the 31st member of the largest defense pact that spans the both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, in which it gives Russia an additional border to the NATO territory, on top of what it already has a border between NATO countries Poland and Lithuania in its territorial exclave of Kaliningrad.

NATO now comprise of at least 31 countries after Finland joined.
Image Source.

In a historic move, Finland has officially become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The announcement was made on Tuesday by the Finnish president's office and was confirmed by NATO's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg.

The decision to join NATO was made after years of discussion and debate within Finland's government. The move is seen as a significant step towards enhancing Finland's security and strengthening its relationship with the international community.

Regarding this historic development, Finland's President Sauli Niinistö said in a statement: "Finland has today become a member of the defence alliance NATO. The era of military non-alignment in our history has come to an end. A new era begins."

This report comes just after Turkey's Parliament ratified the decision to let Finland join the organization, making it the latest member to join the defense pact designed originally to deter the then Soviet-formed Warsaw Pact, which is now a thing of the past, written into the history books.

The decision to join NATO was not without controversy, however. Some in Finland had expressed concern that the move would lead to increased tension with Russia, which has long been a source of tension in the region. Others argued that Finland's traditionally neutral stance should be maintained.

Despite these concerns, the majority of Finland's government and its people supported the decision to join NATO, and the move is expected to have significant implications for Finland's future security and foreign policy.

With Finland's accession, NATO now has 31 member states, all committed to the organization's fundamental principles of collective defense, democracy, and the rule of law. The addition of Finland to this group is seen as a significant step towards ensuring peace and stability in the region and beyond.

(c) 2023 PMAU.

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Japan Prepares Military Aid to Four Countries, Including the Philippines

As Japan now increases its security budget to improve its defense capabilities, so does its prospects of providing foreign military aid over the top of its usual Official Development Assistance or ODA loans for infrastructure and civilian-related developments like in the case of the Philippine Coast Guard.

Japan's J/FPS-3 Radar, in which similar platforms have recently exported to the Philippines.
Image Source.

In a move aimed at strengthening its ties with like-minded countries, Japan is preparing to provide military aid to four nations in the region, Yomiuri Shimbun detailed on its news report. The framework for the Official Security Assistance (OSA) program is currently being finalized, and the four beneficiary countries have been identified as the Philippines, Bangladesh, Fiji, and Malaysia.

Japan sees the Philippines as a strategic defense partner in the region and plans to provide a radar system as part of its aid package to the country. This is in addition to the J/FPS-3 Air surveillance radars that the Philippine Air Force has already purchased in the defense of its Air Defense Identification Zone. Currently, the Philippine Air Defense Identification Zone covers at least 50% of its airspace, with 100% coverage and implementation being its primary goal by 2028.

The details of the aid packages for the other three countries have not been disclosed yet. However, it is expected that Japan will provide them with similar military equipment and technology to enhance their defense capabilities.

Japan's move to provide military aid to like-minded countries comes amid growing concerns over China's assertiveness in the region. Japan has been increasingly worried about China's territorial claims in the East and South China Seas and has been stepping up efforts to build partnerships with other countries in the region.

The OSA program is part of Japan's broader strategy to deepen its security cooperation with other countries. Under the program, Japan provides military equipment and technology to other countries in need, with the aim of enhancing their defense capabilities.

With the finalization of the OSA program framework and the identification of the four beneficiary countries, Japan is expected to start providing military aid soon. The move is likely to strengthen Japan's strategic partnerships in the region and help like-minded countries enhance their defense capabilities.

(c) 2023 PMAU.

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New EDCA Sites Announced, Most Deployed in Northern Luzon Area

The Philippine government has now made it official regarding the additional four (4) EDCA sites that both the Philippines and the United States have agreed to earlier this year.

Four more EDCA sites were in the map, with three out of four sites deployed in Northern Luzon.
(c) Presidential Communications Office

Malacañang Palace has revealed the locations of four new sites that will be included in the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and the United States. The announcement was made on Monday, April 4, by the Presidential Communications Office, which quoted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as saying that the sites are "suitable and mutually beneficial" for both countries.

The four new sites are Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Lal-lo Airport in Lal-lo, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; and Balabac Island in Palawan. According to the Presidential Communications Office, these sites are strategically located to defend the country's eastern coast and will enhance the Philippines' defense capabilities.

The EDCA between the Philippines and the United States was signed in 2014 during the administration of former President Benigno Aquino III. It allows the US military to have access to and use of certain Philippine military bases and facilities for a period of 10 years. The agreement aims to strengthen the alliance between the two countries and enhance their defense capabilities.

The announcement of the new EDCA sites comes amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, where the Philippines and other neighboring countries have competing claims with China. The Philippines has been increasing its defense capabilities in recent years, including through the modernization of its armed forces.

President Marcos Jr. has been a strong advocate of the country's defense modernization and has been pushing for the acquisition of more modern weapons and equipment for the military. He has also been seeking to strengthen the country's alliances with other countries, including the United States and Japan, to ensure the Philippines' security and territorial integrity.

The inclusion of the four new sites in the EDCA is expected to further enhance the Philippines' defense capabilities and contribute to the country's efforts to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Reference:

1. CNN Philippines.

(c) 2023 PMAU. 

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On The German Veto Regarding The Sale of Guarani 6x6 APCs to the Philippines

 Just recently, reports are coming left and right about the problems surrounding the ‘delivery’ of the VBTP-MR Guarani 6x6 Armored Personnel Carrier, whereby the Germany’s office of export control blocks the sale of 28 said Armored Personnel Carriers to the Philippine Army, citing that it has German subcomponents onboard.

This situation is reminiscent issue surrounding the U.S. LHTEC-made engines of the Turkish T-129 ‘ATAK’ Helicopters for the Philippine Air Force, which made delays to the delivery of the air assets and gets delivered eventually as it gets ironed out, with the United States ‘apparently’ allowed the Turkish have the engines since the Philippines is the recipient of the helicopters.

Apparently, the reasons cited does not involve the Philippine Army nor the Philippine government itself, but rather, this is the case that revolves around the fact that both countries embroiled in a diplomatic standoff, involving Brazil’s refusal of providing Ukraine with 35mm ammunition that the Germans requested, and they see this as a simple payback that put the units that the Philippines and other countries, hostage.

From Elbit’s point of view since they are the ones that contract and provide these vehicles to the Philippine Army, this will be problematic as they need to provide the talking and justification that this issue is out of the Israeli company’s hands and that any blacklisting to their end, under the provisions under the Procurement Law or the Republic Act 9184, may not needed to apply at this type of circumstance, which of course will be at the Department of National Defense’ Discretion.

Since it is out of Elbit and the Philippine Armed Forces’ control, the only best thing that can get done in this case for now is wait and hope that both Germany and Brazil resolve their diplomatic differences, as Ukraine currently needs more ammunition to keep their war effort going, as the Russian force still wreaks havoc against the valiant defenders of the Ukrainian soil.

Image Source.

xx

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Philippine Air Force's A-129 "ATAK" Attack Helicopter Arrived In The Country

The newly-built attack helicopters are now in the country, coming as the first batch of what seems to be a series of deliveries with sets of timeline for the Turkish Aerospace Industries to upkeep its obligations. 

NEWS

The Turkish Aerospace Industries, through the Turkish Air Force, has successfully delivered the first two units of its T-129 ATAK Helicopters out of six units ordered for the Philippine Air Force's Attack Helicopter Acquisition Project of the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Program.

These helicopters will be eventually joining the Philippine Air Force's 15th Strike Wing, whose current assets in its inventory include MD-520 Light Attack Helicopters, AH-1S  Dedicated Attack Helicopters donated from Jordan, AW-109 Light Attack Helicopters, A-29 Super Tucanos, and OV-10 Broncos.

The helicopters were delivered by two Airbus A400 Military aircraft of the Turkish Air Force, as opposed to the usual delivery done by civilian aircraft considering that both Antonov Airlines and Volga-Dnepr Airlines belong to both Ukraine and Russia, respectively. Both countries are currently waging war on both sides at the time this article has published.

It was taken note that the Turkish Air Force has suffered multiple delays from getting the helicopters delivered to the country, as they faced difficulties in securing a clearance  for approval intended for its engines for export, as it involves technology originating from the United States.

The helicopters will be undertaking process of testing, familiarization, and eventual operationalization before getting into active service as a dedicated attack helicopter of the Philippine Air Force designed to eliminate threats, especially in providing air support for the troops on the ground that needs assistance in getting a mission done.

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Last Batch of S-70i Blackhawk Helicopters Arrived; More to be Considered

The Combat Utility Helicopter Acquisition Project of 16 units is now getting closer to completion, as the last batch have arrived in the country. This begs the question: Now that the Philippine Air Force is this close in fulfilling the project, what will be their next plan to increase up its numbers, while putting older ones out of service for long-term planning sake?

NEWS

S-70i Blackhawk Helicopters in EASTMINCOM.
(C) Philippine Air Force FB Page

These reports coming from multiple news websites detailed the delivery of the final batch of S-70i Blackhawk Helicopters from PZL Mielec, a Sikorsky Helicopters subsidiary in Poland that produces such helicopters for the Philippine Air Force as part of the Revised AFP Modernization Program - Flight Plan 2028 initiative of the air branch.

The last five units, transported through the Ukrainian-based Antonov Airlines An-124 transporter, was landed in Clark Air Base in Pampanga City for these soon-to-be helicopters of the Philippine Air Force to be disembarked from the aircraft fuselage just like the previous S-70i deliveries that came before it.

As part of standard operating procedure, the Philippine Air Force will undertake multiple test for these helicopters upon assembly of its parts in the country before getting commissioned into active service, as any defects and problems with the asset can be addressed to the manufacturer before any turn-over will take place.

To give you some idea, the helicopters arrived in the country is still counted as property of Sikorsky/PZL Mielec until a formal turn-over was made between them and the Philippine Air Force (end-user) after the number of tests and inspection was made to the helicopter to see that it complies with the specification that the end-user has for the project. Also, this came in accordance to the Procurement Law (Republic Act 9184).

Now that this project is closer to be considered as successful, one cannot prevent to think that there should be an idea that the Philippine Air Force needing to add the number of this type of helicopter in the long run, factoring the actual number of combat utility helicopters in inventory, along with the fact that older UH-1 Hueys might reach its serviceable life.

ASSIGNMENT IN ZAMBOANGA

Two assigned S-70i Blackhawks in Edwin Andrews Airbase
with the Zamboanga International Airport terminal
in the background. (c) Western Mindanao Command FB Page

Just recently, the leadership within the Philippine Air Force decided to assign several of the S-70i Blackhawk Helicopters to multiple airbases in the country such as the Eastern Mindanao Command and Western Mindanao Command (see image above).

Two helicopters were assigned to the Edwin Andrews Airbase in Zamboanga City, the center of operations for the Philippine Air Force that covers most of Zamboanga Peninsula and areas such as Basilan and Sulu, areas that are known for radical Islamist-themed insurgency groups with its inhabitants now vying for peace.

While the additional two Blackhawk helicopters en la Ciudad Hermosa is a welcoming increase of capabilities for the Philippine Air Force covering this jurisdiction, one might say that its numbers are still counted as insufficient, given that deployment of troops especially in skirmishes in the region may not always be covered by the number of troops these helicopters are capable of carrying (13 personnel plus 2 crew), not to mention that ZAMBASULTA area covers a large part of territory.

IT SHOULD NOT STOP IN 16 HELICOPTERS

The government promised that they will add 32 more Blackhawk helicopters for the Philippine Air Force to have, although this wasn't seen materialized currently as the reasons might range from budgeting re-allocated to mitigate the pandemic itself to concerns of the country's economic performance that affect the government's tax collection.

This promise is something that the government needs to materialize, even in multi-year terms that can help bringing down the burden of financing the project itself as a percentage of the annual General Appropriations Act be allotted to the funding of the project. Or its procurement will be divided in different lots or phases as the way project implementation goes with the Revised AFP Modernization Program that it was divided to 3 Horizons, each with its own budget allocation and material needs.

While these words reflect more of the grounded thoughts of a PMAU writer, the leadership within the Philippine Air Force might already take heed on considering additional assets since these plans are already in the pipeline and these considerations are in place, complying procurement, budgeting, and accounting laws that are in place.

One only looks forward for the eventual implementation, aside from the current acquisition program, that more will be added as the whole Armed Forces of the Philippines will continue to modernize its whole structure by introducing new doctrine, recruiting more potential personnel, and adding new assets like the one discussed in this article.

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President Duterte's Desire to Bolster Philippine Coast Guard's Air Unit

The Philippine Coast Guard Modernization Program now has the full backing of the current President of the Republic of the Philippines, with the recent calls of acquiring more air assets for the maritime law enforcers to do their job effectively and efficiently, such as attaining search and rescue operations and enforcing Philippine laws at sea.

NEWS - AND ITS THOUGHTS

Philippine Coast Guard's H-145 Utility Helicopter. (c) Florian Werner

President Rodrigo Duterte, as reported by CNN Philippines, has gave a directive to his cabinet, particularly to the Transportation Secretary Arthur Tugade during the inauguration of Coast Guard Station Kalayaan Island Group that is situated in the West Philippine Sea, and another project in Puerto Princesa, Palawan (which is still facing the West Philippine Sea.

The primary premise of the president to give support for the Coast Guard's eventual boost for its air fleet is not only for search and rescue operations, but also to its ever-increasing presence in the West Philippine Sea as indicated to the recent projects that the Philippine Coast Guard has found itself currently.

It comes further as the president states that the country is subjected to uphold its territorial integrity and national sovereignty, amidst all of the criticisms that the current administration is taking because of their "friendly" stance before the Chinese whose activity in the region is at all-time high, all thanks to its maritime militia that is working round the clock ensuring that their salami slicing strategy works in a lengthy amount of time.

With this now being in mind, it will be beneficial for fishermen who live in the area, as well as those commercial fishermen from across the country, to do their livelihood stuff in the West Philippine Sea as the Armed Forces of the Philippines also decided to join this fishing initiative in the area, enhancing the country's resolve of standing up to its holdings in the contested area that other countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei want their hands into, aside from the heated incidents between China and the Philippines that were reported before. 

The catch here is this - the Philippine Coast Guard has all the privilege it comes as a civilian-oriented agency under the Department of Transportation, wherein it is not entitled to the same export restrictions as the Armed Forces of the Philippines in a sense that arms export is needed to be agreed upon between both countries by signing a form of defense trade agreement or something equivalent to that.

Now the hopes are that the projects of the Philippine Coast Guard will be push through, like adding more of its existing offshore patrol vessels and multirole response vessels in the long run, as well as securing deals with countries like India who expresses desire to push soft loan given that the agency expresses interest in patrol aircraft and helicopters made by Hindustan Aerospace Limited.

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SAAB's Gripen Fighter Jet deal In Danger, Philippine Air Force Now Down to These Two Options

The main export agencies within the Swedish government sphere attempts to derail the project of the Philippine Air Force's Multirole Fighter Jet Acquisition Program, risking SAAB's JAS-39 Gripen deal in the process.

What will it be for the Philippines to take?

NEWS

The JAS-39 Gripen, one of the candidates for the Philippine Air Force's MRF Project.

In this report from a Swedish News Outlet Aftonbladet, a controversy was brewing as groups within the Swedish government was apparently 'out of the loop', regarding the update of SAAB's potential sale of its Multirole Fighter Jet to a certain country, named as the Philippines.

This come as Sweden is reinforcing its arms export laws, highlighting human-rights violations taken by a sitting government as a measuring tool for them to consider the exportation of products like the JAS-39 Gripen to a country like the Philippines.

Highlights of the concerns that some Swedish decision-makers have is the current administration's Human Rights violations that have nothing to do with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), but rather the widely-reported "atrocities" that the local police force committed under the campaign called "The War on Drugs".

While these problems have persisted that can jeopardize the deal if left unresolved, the report also highlighted that the progress has made on the Philippine government's side to seal up the deal (apparently in sheer secrecy), at least before year 2021 ends.

If the sale pushes through...

Even with the Gripen ended up as one of the preferred candidates of the MRF deal of the Philippine Air Force, and with SAAB ended up as the winner of the contract, problems might still arise between the Swedish and the Philippine governments in the long run, especially with the human rights violations getting into the mix.

That means that spare parts and other essential components needed for continuous maintenance and operations of prospective PAF JAS-39 Gripen fighters can be held "hostage", in the same manner as what the Belgians of the Wallonia region did in withholding any weaponry made in that jurisdiction's factories, impairing any weaponry that the military has that has components that were made by Walloons.

This scrutiny reminisced the botched deal made by the Philippine Air Force in securing Bell 412 Helicopters from Canada, after the Canadian government decided to "review the deal" which have prompted the Philippine government to "cancel the deal altogether" and go for S-70i Black Hawk Helicopters instead, now forming a significant bulk of the current Air Force inventory.

Options...

This bold move that the Swedish government may take against the Philippines on the sale of its renowned JAS-39 Gripen Multirole Fighter Jets left the latter with two options, either

 - Pursue a deal with the United States for the F-16 Viper MRFs, or

 - Pursue a deal with the South Koreans for adding up orders of FA-50PH Light Fighter Trainer aircraft from the Korean Aerospace Industries

The first deal comes with a long shot that involves longer waiting times given that orders of F-16s are piling up with countries still buying them more in bulk (starting with countries like Taiwan, who bought 66 of them) while the United States government's Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) providing a whole package of F-16 hardware that makes it more expensive than just buying the units alone.

That leaves with the second option, which itself is a nice idea given that the Philippine Air Force already possesses a single squadron of FA-50PH, with the budget of MRF getting them at least one or two more squadrons for the 5th Fighter Wing to use for its air interdiction missions under PADIZ or Philippine Air Defense Identification Zone.

What Remains to be Seen...

At the end of the day, it is still at the ball of the Philippine Air Force's higher hierarchy, along with the help of the Department of National Defense to sort this one up. 

As far as things are concerned, it is seen that the deal between the Philippines and Sweden's SAAB may ended up in catastrophic failure if this wasn't sort up.

Let it be given with more time to determine the overall outcome of the deal itself, and the fate of the Multirole Fighter Acquisition Project now lies on what will be unfolded in the next couple of weeks, if not months before the project be risked as a midnight project that it will be given over to the next administration to resolve all of its problems.

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Updates:

This website of the Philippine Military Analysis and Updates has just started rolling out in the open, so please bear with us as we are filling this platform up with defense analysis and updates, dealing more to the point of view that deals with policy-making and giving two cents on the news. This, in any way, comes with the facts laid and the author's thoughts of it, grounded with the factual information provided.

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